Foreseeing Coalitions for the Next Sabah State Election: An Analysis of Pakatan Harapan's Potential Partners
Published - 20 April,
By : Amdin Karim
I. Executive Summary:
The upcoming Sabah State Election, which must be held by December 2025 but could potentially occur earlier, presents a complex political landscape with significant implications for both state and national politics. A central question revolves around which coalition Pakatan Harapan (PH) will choose to partner with: Barisan Nasional (BN), its ally in the federal unity government, or Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS), the incumbent state ruling coalition that has also expressed interest in working with PH. This report analyzes the current political dynamics in Sabah, the interests of the key political players – PH, BN, and GRS – and the potential benefits and drawbacks of each possible coalition. Considering the fluid nature of Sabah's political environment and the various factors at play, the analysis suggests that a coalition between PH and GRS appears to be the most likely scenario for the next Sabah State Election.
II. Introduction: The Dynamics of Sabah Politics:
Sabah's political arena is characterized by a unique set of dynamics that distinguish it from other states in Malaysia. Its diverse multi-ethnic population 1 and a history marked by frequent shifts in political allegiances and changes in government 2 contribute to a highly fluid and often unpredictable environment. The state has witnessed numerous instances of governments collapsing due to defections and political crises 2, underscoring the paramount importance of political stability as a key concern for the people of Sabah.6 The repeated instances of government collapses likely fuel a desire among Sabahans for a more consistent and reliable political landscape, influencing their assessment of potential coalitions and their capacity to deliver effective governance.
Unlike its neighbor Sarawak, Sabah's political trajectory is deeply intertwined with the currents of federal politics.2 The historical trend of Peninsular-based parties establishing their presence in Sabah 2, coupled with the existing unity government at the national level comprising PH and BN 12, indicates that national-level political dynamics will significantly shape coalition possibilities in Sabah.
Given the multi-party system prevalent in Sabah 2 and the multitude of political parties contesting for seats 2, it is highly improbable that any single party will secure the 37-seat majority required to govern on its own.32 This necessitates the formation of coalitions, placing significant importance on the dynamics of coalition negotiations and the ability of parties to find common ground. The main political entities in Sabah include Pakatan Harapan (comprising the Democratic Action Party (DAP), Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR), and the United Progressive Kinabalu Organisation (UPKO) 2), Barisan Nasional (primarily represented by the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) 2), and Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (a coalition of Sabah-based parties including Parti Gagasan Rakyat Sabah (Gagasan Rakyat), Parti Bersatu Sabah (PBS), Parti Solidariti Tanah Airku (STAR), Sabah Progressive Party (SAPP), Parti Harapan Rakyat Sabah (PHRS), United Sabah National Organisation (USNO), Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), and Parti Cinta Sabah (PCS) 3). Their current standing in the Sabah State Assembly will be crucial in determining the landscape of potential alliances.
III. The Current Political Landscape in Sabah:
The current composition of the 16th Sabah State Legislative Assembly, elected on September 26, 2020, reveals the following seat distribution 41:
GRS, under the leadership of Chief Minister Hajiji Noor, currently commands the largest bloc of seats.2 However, its majority is not absolute and has relied on the support of PH and a faction within BN to maintain control.11 This reliance provides PH with considerable leverage in shaping the future political direction of Sabah. The fact that GRS required PH's backing after BN withdrew its support in January 2023 5 underscores this dependence.
An unusual dynamic exists with BN, which currently sits in the opposition in Sabah despite being a partner with PH in the federal unity government.11 This divergence between the federal and state levels of government for PH and BN creates a complex scenario.11 While they collaborate nationally, their opposing roles in Sabah could influence their willingness and ability to form a state-level coalition. Datuk Seri Bung Moktar Radin, the Sabah BN chief, has even suggested the possibility of an open contest involving all parties.47
Despite being in the opposition, Warisan remains a significant political force in Sabah, particularly in the East Coast region.2 Holding 14 seats, Warisan is the largest single opposition party.2 Its potential to influence the election outcome, either independently or as part of a broader opposition alliance, should not be underestimated. While GRS has indicated a lack of interest in collaborating with Warisan 21, their potential role in the post-election landscape remains a factor in coalition calculations.
Examining the strengths and weaknesses of each major political entity provides further context. GRS, while dominant, sees its anchor party Gagasan Rakyat relying heavily on Muslim Bumiputera support and lacking strong backing from the Kadazandusun community.2 Other components of GRS, such as PBS and STAR, hold significant strength within the Kadazandusun community.2 PH's support is largely concentrated in urban areas and among Chinese voters 2, with UPKO struggling to broaden its appeal beyond the Kadazandusun community.2 BN, while possessing a long-standing presence and strong party machinery, particularly among Muslim Bumiputera communities 2, is hampered by internal factional conflicts 2 and recent leadership instability within UMNO Sabah.2 Warisan, while holding strong support on the East Coast, faces challenges in expanding its influence, particularly among the Kadazandusun community.2
IV. Interests and Positions of Key Political Players:
Pakatan Harapan's (PH) primary objective in the upcoming Sabah State Election is to enhance its representation and influence within the state assembly.21 Strategically, PH finds itself at a crossroads, needing to balance its national-level alliance with BN 12 against the potential opportunity to lead the state government through a partnership with GRS.9 PH, particularly through the efforts of DAP and UPKO, is actively engaged in strengthening its position in preparation for the upcoming election.35 This proactive approach suggests that PH is likely to be involved in detailed internal strategizing regarding seat allocations and potential coalition agreements to maximize its electoral gains and influence in the next state government. Furthermore, PH Sabah has emphasized the importance of aligning with partners who prioritize Sabah's rights under the Malaysia Agreement 1963 (MA63).56 Given the significant sentiment in Sabah concerning MA63 2, PH's stance on this issue will be a critical factor in choosing a coalition partner. Any potential alliance must demonstrate a clear commitment to pursuing Sabah's rights and autonomy as enshrined in the agreement.
Barisan Nasional's (BN) primary objective is to reclaim its former prominence in Sabah's political landscape following significant losses in recent elections.21 A key motivation for BN to consider a coalition with PH stems from the fact that they are already partners in the federal unity government.9 Such an alliance could also allow BN to potentially leverage PH's support base in urban areas and among non-Bumiputera voters.35 Sabah UMNO, under the leadership of Bung Moktar Radin, has openly expressed its desire to collaborate with PH 21, viewing the upcoming election as a critical juncture for the party's survival in the state.59 Given UMNO's weakened position in Sabah 2 after the 2020 state election 2 and subsequent political crises 2, an alliance with PH could offer a path back to relevance and potential power-sharing in the state. However, there have been denials and uncertainties regarding formal talks between Sabah DAP and BN 65, suggesting potential resistance within PH to a state-level alliance with BN, possibly due to past political rivalries or differing ideologies. Additionally, internal factional conflicts within Sabah UMNO 2 could also undermine its effectiveness as a coalition partner.
Gabungan Rakyat Sabah's (GRS) primary objective is to maintain its position as the ruling coalition in Sabah.2 Partnering with PH would serve to strengthen its coalition government 9 and ensure continued positive relations with the federal government under Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim.3 Chief Minister Hajiji Noor has consistently expressed a desire to collaborate with PH 9, emphasizing that the ruling coalition will ultimately determine its partners for the upcoming election.9 However, there is also a sentiment within GRS that favors having only Sabah-based parties contesting all seats.35
V. Analyzing Potential Coalition Scenarios:
A coalition between Pakatan Harapan and Barisan Nasional in the Sabah State Election would mirror their current cooperation at the federal level.12 This alignment could offer PH the advantage of reinforcing the federal unity government framework, potentially leading to greater stability and smoother coordination between the state and federal administrations if they secure a majority.14 BN's established machinery and long-standing presence in Sabah 2 could also be beneficial in reaching voters across the state. However, this scenario carries potential disadvantages for PH. Aligning with a national party like UMNO might alienate a segment of Sabahans who increasingly prefer local-based parties.2 Moreover, such a move would likely clash with GRS, which is already part of the state government.11 The historical animosity between PH and UMNO 2 could also present challenges in forging a cohesive and publicly acceptable alliance at the state level. PH's reliance on non-Chinese votes for victory in Sabah 35 suggests the need for a coalition that can broaden its appeal beyond its traditional support base.
A coalition between Pakatan Harapan and Gabungan Rakyat Sabah appears to be a more probable scenario. This alliance would align PH with the current state government 11, and GRS's identity as a local Sabah-based coalition might resonate positively with a significant portion of the electorate.2 Given the existing cooperation between PH and GRS in the current state administration 8, this alliance could lead to a more stable government. GRS has explicitly expressed its commitment to an ongoing collaboration with PH Sabah 10, and Chief Minister Hajiji Noor has downplayed the likelihood of BN joining this cooperation.9 However, a potential disadvantage for PH could be the perception of aligning with a relatively new coalition 2 that might have a weaker grassroots machinery in certain areas compared to BN. Additionally, GRS's dominant position in the assembly could potentially limit PH's influence within the state government. GRS's lack of strong figures beyond Hajiji and its limited support among the Kadazandusun community 2 might necessitate PH, particularly through UPKO, playing a more significant role in appealing to this community.
The possibility of a three-way alliance involving PH, BN, and GRS could offer maximum political stability and representation of diverse interests.15 However, such an arrangement would likely involve complex power-sharing negotiations and could potentially lead to internal conflicts and disagreements on policy and seat allocation.2 While Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim might favor such a broad coalition 35, Hajiji Noor's minimization of BN's potential role 9 suggests that a two-way alliance between PH and GRS is currently more likely.
VI. Factors Influencing Pakatan Harapan's Choice:
Several key factors will likely influence Pakatan Harapan's decision regarding its coalition partner for the next Sabah State Election. The most crucial factor will be the prospects for securing a majority and forming a stable state government.2 Alignment on key policy issues, particularly regarding Sabah's rights under MA63 2, will also be a critical consideration in negotiations. PH will also need to carefully evaluate the potential impact of its choice on its national-level alliance with BN.12 Public and grassroots sentiment in Sabah 2, including the prevalent anti-federal sentiment 2, will likely play a role in their decision-making process, potentially favoring a coalition with a local party like GRS. Finally, PH's historical relationship and past collaborations with both BN and GRS (including its previous alliance with Warisan 2) will also be a significant factor.
VII. Commentary on Pakatan Harapan's Likely Coalition Choice:
Considering the various factors and the current political landscape in Sabah, Pakatan Harapan appears more likely to form a coalition with Gabungan Rakyat Sabah for the upcoming state election. Several reasons support this conclusion. Firstly, there is the existing working relationship between PH and GRS in the current state government.11 This familiarity and established cooperation provide a foundation for a more seamless transition into an electoral alliance. Secondly, GRS, as a coalition of local Sabah-based parties, aligns with the growing sentiment among Sabahans for greater autonomy and local leadership.2 This could be a strategic advantage for PH in appealing to voters. Thirdly, the leadership of GRS, particularly Chief Minister Hajiji Noor, has consistently expressed a strong preference for continuing their collaboration with PH 9, even downplaying the possibility of BN's involvement.9
While PH is currently in a federal unity government with BN, the dynamics at the state level in Sabah appear to favor an alliance with GRS. The awkward situation of BN being in opposition in Sabah despite its federal partnership with PH could create complexities and potential friction in a state-level coalition. Furthermore, the historical animosity between PH and UMNO, the dominant component of BN, might make a state-level alliance less palatable to both parties and their respective supporters.
Despite the higher likelihood of a PH-GRS coalition, uncertainties remain. Sabah's political landscape is known for its fluidity, and unexpected shifts in alliances can occur even close to the election. The final decision will likely depend on the outcome of negotiations regarding seat allocations, power-sharing arrangements, and alignment on key policy issues, particularly those concerning Sabah's rights and autonomy.
VIII. Conclusion: Navigating Sabah's Complex Political Future:
In summary, the upcoming Sabah State Election presents a fascinating case study in coalition politics. The analysis indicates that while Pakatan Harapan is part of a unity government with Barisan Nasional at the federal level, the prevailing conditions in Sabah point towards a stronger likelihood of PH forming an electoral alliance with the incumbent Gabungan Rakyat Sabah. This conclusion is supported by the existing working relationship between PH and GRS in the state government, GRS's local Sabah-based identity which resonates with a significant portion of the electorate, and the consistent expressions of interest from GRS leadership in continuing their collaboration with PH.
While a PH-BN coalition cannot be entirely ruled out, the potential for alienating local sentiments and the existing state-level opposition role of BN present significant hurdles. A three-way alliance, although potentially offering maximum stability, appears less likely given GRS's apparent preference for a direct partnership with PH.
Ultimately, Pakatan Harapan's choice of coalition partner will have significant long-term implications for Sabah's political stability and development. An alliance with GRS could provide continuity and potentially strengthen the state's relationship with the federal government under Anwar Ibrahim. However, the success of such a coalition will depend on the ability of both parties to navigate potential challenges, including GRS's internal dynamics and PH's need to broaden its appeal across different ethnic communities in Sabah. The next Sabah State Election is poised to be a defining moment in the state's political trajectory, and the decisions made by PH and other key players will shape its future for years to come.
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